简介:选取2008年3月21—29日奥地利地区的降水天气过程,从欧洲中期天气预报中心全球集合数值预报模式生成的50个全球集合预报成员出发,通过聚类方法选取有代表性的16个成员,为中欧有限区域集合预报系统区域集合预报系统提供初边值扰动,进行初边条件不确定性数值试验,揭示初边条件不确定性对区域集合预报的影响。结果表明:经过聚类后选取的16个成员可以较好地代表50个全球集合预报成员大尺度背景的不确定性;集合平均结果在一定程度上修正了奥地利中部地区降水量级偏大和北部的降水空报情况;通过聚类后的集合系统得到的预报结果与控制预报相比表明,某些集合成员对降水预报有更好的指示意义;通过连续试验的对比,两个经聚类后得到的集合系统的降水预报评分均比业务预报的评分高,且集合离散度也较大;而成对和不成对的集合预报系统的预报结果基本相似。说明直接从全球大尺度集合预报模式成员中"降尺度"构造区域集合预报模式成员是可行有效的。
简介:雷电危险度是反映雷电灾害危害程度的综合指标,本文利用大连地区ADTD型闪电定位系统监测资料、雷暴日观测资料、雷电灾害调查资料、1679个防雷被检单位的检测数据及地形地貌等资料,基于可拓学综合评估方法对大连地区雷电灾害危险度进行了评估研究。结果表明:从影响雷电危险度等级的雷电活动特征、防灾减灾能力及待评估现状3个方面选取了12个评估指标,基于现场调查建立了大连地区雷电危险度可拓学综合评估体系。利用关联函数和物元理论判定了雷电危险度的经典域与节域,基于熵值赋权法确定了各评估指标的权重系数,对大连地区雷电危险度进行了等级划分,并通过实例验证雷电危险度等级综合评估方法的合理性。
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简介:Netprimaryproduction(NPP)ofcroprepresentsthecapacityofsequestratingatmosphericCO_2inagro-ecosystem,anditplaysanimportantroleinterrestrialcarboncycling.BylinkingtheCrop-CmodelwithclimatechangescenarioprojectedbyacoupledGCMFGOALSviageographicalinformationsystem(GIS)techniques,cropNPPinChinawassimulatedfrom2000to2050.ThenationalaveragedsurfaceairtemperaturefromFGOALSisprojectedtoincreaseby1.0℃overthisperiodandthecorrespondingatmosphericCO_2concentrationis535ppmby2050undertheIPCCAIBscenario.Withaspatialresolutionof10×10km~2,modelsimulationindicatedthatanannualaverageincreaseof0.6TgCyr~(-1)(Tg=10~(12)g)wouldbepossibleundertheAIBscenario.TheNPPinthelate2040swouldincreaseby5%(30TgC)withinthe98×10~6hm~2croplandareaincontrastwiththatintheearly2000s.AfurtherinvestigationsuggestedthatchangesintheNPPwouldnotbeevenlydistributedinChina.AhigherincreasewouldoccurinamajorityofregionslocatedineasternandnorthwesternChina,whileaslightreductionwouldappearinHebeiandTianjininnorthernChina.ThespatialcharacteristicsofthecropNPPchangeareattributedprimarilytotheunevendistributionoftemperaturechange.
简介:ThisstudyinvestigatesclassificationanddiurnalvariationsoftheprecipitationechoesoverthecentralTibetanPlateaubasedontheobservationscollectedfromaC-bandvertically-pointingfrequency-modulatedcontinuous-wave(C-FMCW)radarduringtheThirdTibetanPlateauAtmosphericScientificExperiment(TIPEX-Ⅲ)2014-IntensiveObservationPeriod(2014-IOP).Theresultsshowthat51.32%oftheverticalprofileshavevalidechoeswithreflectivity>-10dBZ,and35.06%ofthevalidechoprofilesproduceprecipitationattheground(precipitationprofiles);stratiformprecipitationwithanevidentbright-bandsignature,weakconvectiveprecipitation,andstrongconvectiveprecipitationaccountfor52.03%,42.98%,and4.99%oftheprecipitationprofiles,respectively.About59.84%oftheprecipitationoccursintheafternoontomidnight,while40.16%oftheprecipitationwithweakerintensityisobservedinthenocturnalhoursandinthemorning.Diurnalvariationofoccurrencefrequencyofprecipitationshowsamajorpeakduring2100-2200LST(localsolartime)with59.02%beingthestratiformprecipitation;thesecondarypeakappearsduring1300-1400LSTwith59.71%beingtheweakconvectiveprecipitation;thestrongconvectiveprecipitationoccursmostly(81.83%)intheafternoonandeveningwithtwopeaksover1200-1300and1700-1800LST,respectively.Startingfromapproximately1100LST,precipitationechoesdevelopwithenhancedverticalairmotion,elevatedechotop,andincreasingradarreflectivity.Intenseupwardairmotionoccursmostfrequentlyin1700-1800LSTwithasecondarypeakin1100-1400LST,whilethetopsofprecipitationechoesandintenseupwardairmotionreachtheirhighestlevelsduring1600-1800LST.Theatmosphericconditionsintheearlymorningaredisadvantageousforconvectiveinitiationanddevelopment.Aroundnoon,theconvectiveavailablepotentialenergy(CAPE)increasesmarkedly,convectiveinhibition(CIN)isgenerallysmall,andasuper-dry-adiabaticlayerispresentnear
简介:1前言短波单边带数传系统是"9210"工程业务系统的重要组成部分,在"9210"工程实施过程中,我中心承担了短波单边带电台的技术验收工作,由于所采用的FT-80C型电台在业务使用中主要承担数传任务,因此对电台的部分技术指标有一定特殊要求:发射机载波频率误差≤10Hz、接收机调制接收带宽≥2.6kHz.