简介:Canearthquakesbepredicted?Howshouldpeopleovercomethedifficultiesencounteredinthestudyofearthquakeprediction?Thisissuecantakeinspirationfromtheexperiencesofweatherforecast.Althoughweatherforecastingtookaperiodofabouthalfacenturytoadvancefromempiricaltonumericalforecast,ithasachievedsignificantsuccess.AconsensushasbeenreachedamongtheChineseseismologicalcommunitythatearthquakepredictionmustalsodevelopfromempiricalforecastingtophysicalprediction.However,itisseldommentionedthatphysicalpredictionischaracterizedbyquantitativelynumericalpredictionsbasedonphysicallaws.Thisarticlediscussesfivekeycomponentsfornumericalearthquakepredictionandtheircurrentstatus.Weconcludethatnumericalearthquakepredictionshouldnowbeputontheplanningagendaanditsroadmapdesigned,seismicstationsshouldbedeployedandobservationsmadeaccordingtotheneedsofnumericalprediction,andtheoreticalresearchshouldbecarriedout.
简介:ThedevelopmentofearthquakeengineeringinChinaisdescribedintothreestages.Theinitialstagein1950's-1960'swasmarkedwiththeinitiationofthisbranchofsciencefromitscreationinthefirstnational12-yearplanofscienceandtechnologybyspecifyingearthquakeengineeringasabranchitemandIEMwasoneparticipant.Thefirstearthquakezonationmapandthefirstseismicdesigncodeweresooncompletedandusedinengineeringdesign.Siteeffectonstructuraldesignandsiteselectionwereseriouslystudied.ThesecondstagemarkedwiththeoccurrenceofquiteafewstrongearthquakesinChina,fromwhichmanylessonswerelearnedandcorrespondingconsiderationswerespecifiedinourdesigncodesandfollowedinconstructionpractice.Thethirdstageisastageofdisastermanagement,whichismarkedbyaseriesofgovernmentdocumentations,leadingbyanationallawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaontheprotectingagainstandmitigatingearthquakedisastersadoptedatthemeetingoftheStandingCommitteeoftheNationalPeople'sCongressofthePeople'sRepublicofChinain1997,andthenfollowedbysomeprovincialandmunicipallawstoforcetheactionsoutlinedinthenationallaw.Itmaybeexpectedthatoursocietywillbemuchmoresafertoresisttheattackoffuturestrongearthquakeswithlesslosses.Lastly,possiblefuturedevelopmentsarealsodiscussed.
简介:Thesystemofgeophysicalshells(lithosphere,atmosphere,ionosphere)isconsideredasanopencomplexnonlinearsystemwithdissipationwhereearthquakepreparationcouldberegardedasaself-organizingprocessleadingtothecriticalstateofthesystem.Theprocessesinatmosphereandionosphereareconsideredfromthepointofviewofnon-equilibriumthermodynamics.Theintensiveionizationofboundarylayerofatmosphere(probablyprovidedbyradoninoccasionofearthquakepreparation)givesstarttothesynergeticsequenceofcouplingprocesseswheretheionosphereandevenmagnetospherearethelastlinksinthechainofinteractions.Everyanomalyobservedindifferentgeophysicalfields(surfacetemperature,latentheatflux,electromagneticemissions,variationsinionosphere,particleprecipitation,etc.)isnotconsideredasanindividualprocessbutthepartoftheself-organizingprocess,thefinalgoalofwhichisthereachingofthepointofthemaximumentropy.RadonanomalybeforetheKobeearthquakeisconsideredasaperfectexampletosatisfytheformalseismologicaldeterminationoftheearthquakeprecursor.Whatisgeneticallyconnectedwithradonthroughtheionizationprocesscanalsoberegardedasaprecursor.Theproblemofco-seismicvariationsofthediscussedparametersofatmosphereandionosphereisconsideredaswell.
简介:Earthquakeengineeringresearchanddevelopmenthavereceivedmuchattentionsincethefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.Thisvaluableresearchpresentedahugestepforwardinunderstandingearthquakehazardmitigation,whichresultedinappreciablereductionoftheeffectsofpastearthquakes.Nevertheless,the2011Tohokuearthquakeandthesubsequenttsunamiresultedinmajordamage.Thispaperpresentsthetimelineofearthquakemitigationandrecovery,asseenbytheauthors.Possibleresearchdirectionswheretheauthorsthinkthatmanyopenquestionsstillremainareidentified.Theseareprimarilybasedontheimportantlessonslearnedfromthe2011Tohokuearthquake.
简介:SubscriptionsEarthquakeEngineeringandEngineeringVibration(PrintISSN1671-3664,CN23-1496/Pwww.iem.net.cn/eeev)ispublishedbiannuallybytheChinaSciencePress.SubscriptionRatesVolume2,2005,2issues?80.00forinstitutionsand?60.00forindividualsformainlandofChina;andUS$80.00andUS$60.00(includingairmailpostage)forinsti-tutionsandindividuals,respectivelyforotherregions.
简介:Journalwebsite:http://www.springerlink.comAIMSANDSCOPEThisjournalisestablishedbytheInstituteofEngineeringMechanics(IEM),ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,topromotescientificexchangebetweenChineseandforeignscientistsandengineerssoastoimprovethetheoryandpracticeofearthquakehazardsmitigation,preparedness,andrecovery.Toaccomplishthispurpose,thejournalaimstoattractabalancednumberofpapersbetweenChineseand
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简介:Chinaisthecountrywiththemostearthquakesandthemostserioushazardsfromcontinentalearthquakesintheworld.Duringthe1960sand1970s,aseriesofstrongearthquakesattackedthecitiesandcountiesinChinacausinggreatdamageandmanycasualties.ThemoststrikingonewastheTangshanearthquake(Ms7.8)inJuly1976,inwhichover240,000peoplediedandalargeindustrialcitywasleveled.Publicdemandforearthquakeforecastingsurgedafterthisdisaster.Fromthemid-1960s,systemicresearchonearthquakeforecastinghasevolvedthroughoutthecountry,InthispaperthemainadvancesinearthquakepredictionresearchinChinahavebeensummarized.
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