简介：Inthisarticle,anewdefinitionfortheNorthHuaiheRiverrainyseason(NHRS)ispresentedusingsummerdailyprecipitationinEastChinaandsubtropicalhighridgeaxisat500hPa.BycalculatingtheannualprecipitationamountsintheNHRSandMeiyuoftheYangtze-HuaiheRiversbasin(YHMY)from1961to2009,thedatesofprecipitationbeginningandendingaswellasthedurationofthetworainyseasonsinthe49yearsareanalyzed.AtmosphericcirculationcharacteristicsinpositiveandnegativeprecipitationanomalyyearsduringtheNHRSarealsostudied.Resultsareshownasfollows.(1)ThenewdefinitionfortheNHRSismucheasiertouse.Itinvolvesonlytwometeorologicalfactors,makingitsapplicationmorepractical.ItcanalsodistinguishtworainyperiodsoftheNHRSmoreobjectively.(2)TheaveragedurationoftheNHRSissimilartothatoftheYHMY,exceptthatitsaveragedatesofbeginningandendingareaboutoneweeklaterthanthoseoftheYHMY.TheaverageprecipitationoftheNHRSisslightlylessthanthatoftheYHMY,andtheyearlyprecipitationvariationofthetworainyseasonsaresimilartoeachotherwithnoobviousincreasingordecreasingtrendinthe49years,butwithdistinguisheddecadalandinter-annualvariations.(3)Inpositiveprecipitationanomalyyears,theSouthAsianhighmovesmorenorthwardandmoreeastward,thewesternPacificsubtropicalhighislocatedmorenorthwardandwestward,andthesummermonsoonisstrongerthannormal,resultingintheconvergenceofthewarmandmoistsouthwesterlyairflowfromthewestsideofthesubtropicalhighandthecoldairfromthenorthsideofthenortheasttroughinNorthHuaiheRiverbasin.

简介：Daily850-hPameridionalwindfieldsinEastAsiafromMarchtoSeptember2002wereusedtoestablishamodeloftheprincipaloscillationpattern(POP).Thismodelwasthenusedtoconductindependentextended-rangeforecastsoftheprincipaltemporalandspatialvariationsinthelow-frequencymeridionalwindfieldonatimescaleof20-30days.ThesevariationsaffecttheoccurrenceofheavyprecipitationeventsinthelowerreachesoftheYangtzeRivervalley(LYRV).Theresultsof135forecastexperimentsduringthesummerhalfyearshowthatthepredictedandobservedanomaliesarestronglycorrelatedataleadtimeof20days(meancorrelationgreaterthan0.50).Thisstrongcorrelationindicatesthatthemodeliscapableofaccuratelyforecastingthelow-frequencyvariationsinmeridionalwindthatcorrespondedtothe3heavyprecipitationeventsintheLYRVduringthesummerof2002.Furtherforecastexperimentsbasedondatafrommultipleyearswithsignificant20-30-dayoscillationsshowthatthesepredictionmodesareeffectivetoolsforforecastingthespace-timeevolutionofthelow-frequencycirculation.ThesefindingsofferpotentialforimprovingtheaccuracyofforecastsofheavyprecipitationovertheLYRVatleadtimesof3-4weeks.