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简介:Homemortgageloanlendingfirmsareexposedtomanybusinessrisks.Thispaperfocusesonthemortgageloanborrowerrisksandproposesaprospectivelossanalysisapproachinregardtoloanrepaymentdefaultsofborrowers.Forthispurpose,apredictivemodelingispresentedinthreestages.Inthefirststage,occurrenceofborrowerdefaultsinamortgageloansportfolioismodeledthroughthegeneralizedlinearmodels(GLMs)typeregressionsforwhichwespecifyalogisticdistributionfordefaultevents.Thesecondstageofmodelingdevelopsasurvivalanalysisinordertoestimatesurvivalprobabilityandhazardratefunctionsforindividualloans.Ultimately,anexpectablelossamountmodelispresentedinthethirdstageasafunctionofconditionalsurvivalprobabilitiesandcorrespondinghazardratesatloanlevels.Throughoutallmodelingstages,alargeandrealdatasetisusedasanempiricalanalysiscasebywhichdetailedinterpretationsandpracticalimplicationsoftheobtainedresultsarestated.
简介:实行最严格的土地管理制度,是由我国人多地少的国情决定的,也是贯彻落实科学发展观,保证经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。去年以来,各地区、各部门认真贯彻党中央、国务院部署,全面清理各类开发区,切实落实暂停审批农用地转用的决定,土地市场治理整顿取得了积极进展,